Affected by the attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, about one third of the world's helium supply has been cut off, and prices of high-purity bundled helium in China have continued to rise. As of May 11, 2026, prices of high-purity bundled helium in China had risen by more than 308% since the start of the year, with semiconductor-grade helium up nearly 88% in March alone and industrial-grade helium up about 100% to 150%. High-purity helium accounts for less than 1% of chip manufacturing costs, but it handles wafer temperature control in dry etching, and there is currently no substitute.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, global helium output in 2025 was about 190 million cubic meters. The United States accounted for 42.6%, or about 81 million cubic meters; Qatar accounted for 33.2%, or about 63 million cubic meters; and Russia accounted for 9.5%. Together, the United States and Qatar contribute more than 75% of global output.

The episode began on February 28, 2026, when Iranian drones struck Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's leading LNG base by scale and the single production site for Qatar's helium. On March 18 and 19, a second round of attacks caused "extensive" damage to the facilities, and QatarEnergy announced that repairs would take years and that annual helium exports would be cut by 14%. Since U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, cutting off the sole sea route by which Qatari helium reaches the rest of the world. Production stoppage, export cuts and transport paralysis occurred at the same time.

The semiconductor industry consumes about 21% to 24% of global helium, using 39 million to 46 million cubic meters a year. Qatar alone produces 63 million cubic meters of helium a year, more than the total annual consumption of all semiconductor fabs worldwide. Even adding up the helium demand of every semiconductor fab on the planet, Qatar's capacity would still have a surplus. Now that the source of that surplus has been cut off, the gap is no longer something that higher prices can fill.

Helium's role in manufacturing is hard to replace. Dry etching equipment relies on helium to control the temperature of the wafer's back side: as plasma bombardment generates large amounts of heat, helium is fed into the gap of only a few micrometers between the wafer and the pedestal, holding temperature uniformity within ±0.5°C. Without helium, temperature control fails and etching cannot proceed. The cooling systems of EUV lithography machines also depend on helium, whose thermal conductivity is six times that of nitrogen, and a single EUV machine consumes more than 10,000 liters of helium a year.

As a resource that cannot be synthesized and cannot be regenerated, helium inventories can only be depleted, and that process is irreversible. Liquid helium must be stored at -269°C, and about 1% evaporates naturally every day, so each additional day in storage means one less batch of supply.

According to Reuters, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix currently hold about four to six months of helium inventory, and the South Korean government has confirmed that there will be no supply interruption in the first half of the year. But these figures cover only two memory makers; the real situation across the industry is more severe.

In terms of timing, supply can be maintained for 0 to 3 months through inventory and allocation; quota cuts begin to appear at 3 to 6 months; some advanced fabs will be constrained at 6 to 12 months; and if the situation lasts more than a year, the industry will be forced to rank production priorities, with cutting-edge logic chips such as 2nm and 3nm taken offline first, and mature-node and automotive chips sacrificed afterwards.

QatarEnergy has officially confirmed that rebuilding the damaged Ras Laffan facilities will take three to five years, and that full helium export capacity will not be available between 2026 and 2028. Only small, simple skid-mounted units will be temporarily brought online, restoring about 12% of the original capacity. Russia imposed temporary export controls on helium in April 2026, effective through the end of 2027. Of the three main suppliers, namely the United States, Qatar and Russia, two have been cut off at the same time.

Huatai Securities estimates that the global helium supply-demand gap in 2026 and 2027 will be between -50 million and -10 million cubic meters, and that the gap ratio will narrow gradually from the current 15% to 21%, although tight supply and demand will persist through 2026 and 2027.

Helium recovery and recycling systems are currently the more realistic mitigation measure for the industry. Through processes including cryogenic helium extraction and low-temperature catalyst adsorption, helium can be purified to 5N or even above 8N and returned to production lines, achieving a recovery rate of 60% to 70%. TSMC and Samsung have partly implemented helium recovery systems, but coverage is far from complete. The approach has two limitations: the upfront capital investment is huge and not every fab can afford it, and recovery systems can only reduce net consumption by 15% to 30%, which cannot fill the 33.2% of global output that Qatar has lost.

Demand keeps expanding. WSTS forecasts that global semiconductor revenue will grow 26.3% year on year in 2026 to 975 billion U.S. dollars. Advanced processes such as 2nm GAA transistors and 3D NAND with more than 400 layers demand higher temperature-control precision, driving unit helium consumption steadily higher, while ASML plans to raise EUV capacity by 30% in 2027. Shrinking supply and expanding demand are squeezing the market from both sides.

In terms of causes, this crisis results from three overlapping constraints: geopolitical conflict, a non-renewable resource and the absence of substitutes. One third of global supply gone, three to five years needed for repairs and inventories that can last only six months: the mismatch among these three time horizons means the crisis is a structural reshaping rather than a short-term fluctuation.

Three variables deserve close attention going forward: when the Strait of Hormuz reopens to shipping, how quickly Qatar's temporary skid-mounted units ramp up, and how fast major fabs expand helium recovery coverage. Any one of them beating expectations could trigger a price correction; if all three fall short, selective shutdowns of production in the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027 will be unavoidable. Helium accounts for less than 1% of chip manufacturing costs, but without it the other 99% of costs are meaningless. The market's focus is not the price itself, but whether production can be maintained.